What is the Suffolk University Poll?
Beginning in 2002, the Suffolk University Political
Research Center has conducted political polls at the state and national level.
Although this political research center is relatively young, bellwether survey
analyses indicate that the data from these polls are about 89% accurate in
predicting political outcomes.
As described by the Suffolk University website, “Used
both locally and nationally, the model has an 85% accuracy rating in predicting
straight-up winners”. You can access the Suffolk University website and Daved
Paleologos’ full bio here: http://www.suffolk.edu/college/12224.php.
What is the Bellwether model?
The Suffolk University website explains that,
“Bellwethers are polls conducted separately from statewide surveys”.
Bellwethers can be a town, county, or region that accurately reflects how a
state will vote. Bellwethers do not remain constant, they change every election
cycle and differ with election type. Unlike state-polls, bellwether polls are
not designed to predict margins of victory, just outcomes. Examples of
Paleologos’ most accurate bellwether predictions and a history the of voting
predictions proving the center’s 89% record of accuracy can be found here: http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/29013.php.
Charts detaling the data gathered and the
methodologies used can be found here: http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10741.php.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters is based on live
telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older, residing in all 50
states and the District of Columbia, who intend to vote in the general election.
We know that live interviews produce accurate data, but they are costly, this
is likely why the survey was limited to 1,000 voters. The way in which these
voters are selected to be called however, balances out the effects of a limited
population.
Demographic information for both polls was determined
using 2010 Census data. This data was then used to create samples of both
standard landlines and cellphones. The location of these numbers was determined
using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, meaning that the phone
numbers, “assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents
in each state”. States were then grouped into four general regions.
By doing live phone interviews, Suffolk University
was able to ask for the youngest adult in the house, and administer surveys in
both Spanish and English. If polling had not been conducted by live telephone interview,
these availabilities might not have existed and the data would be less
accurate. Instead, live phone interviewing in combination with the
probability-proportionate-to-size method and Census data creates an accurate
description of voters opinions.
Bloggers Nate Silver and
Steve Singiser rate the accuracy of many polls on their blogs FiveThirtyEight and Daily
KOS. Pollster ratings for FiveThirtyEight are calculated by, “analyzing
the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls”. Daily KOS
ranks polls by calculating point values for polls based on wins, Average Error,
and Partisan Error. Both blogs rank the polling methodology of Suffolk
University in the top tier. Infact Daily KOS specifically mentions Suffolk
University as accurate when Steve Singiser says:
Credit should be given, however, to three outfits in
particular. Ipsos, Suffolk University, and PPP were in the unique position of
being in the upper half of the pollster ratings in both cycles. Ipsos is the
leader in that regard, having averaged 236 points between the two cycles. But
Suffolk should be given credit for their consistency (only a twelve point
difference between cycles), and PPP deserves loads of credit for their top-tier
performance....
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