One way to track changes
in political opinion is with a panel, where the same group of people is asked
to respond periodically during a campaign season. Each election season, the
RAND Corporation conducts a Presidential Election Panel Survey, or PEPS, using the
RAND American Life Panel.
According to the
website, “RAND American Life Panel (ALP) is a nationally representative,
probability-based panel of over 6000 members ages 18 and older who are
regularly interviewed over the internet for research purposes.” Other polls use
panels, but RAND differs in a few ways:
· The
poll gives the technology needed to participate to the panel members. This way
the panel is more similar to the U.S. adult population as a whole
·
This panel is continuous, so that responses from participants can be tracked
over time. This gives RAND an interesting perspective into true changes in
public opinion (this approach forecasted the 2012 U.S. presidential election)
·
Survey results are available to researchers online, which links new data to old
data
Advantages
1.
Researchers can track participant
answers over time, making it possible to measure change.
2.
Probabilistic Polling:
rather than simply asking if the participants are voting, PEPS asks the
participant how likely they are to vote overall, and then how likely they are
to vote for each candidate
RAND’s methodology
is an accredited system, sponsored by: nonprofit organizations, US government
agencies, international organizations, US state and local governments, colleges
and universities and other professional associations.
By Lily Mandell
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