Poll timing means snapshot effects

Looking into the methodology of a poll can help the audience understand the results, the presentation of those results and if there is any obvious bias. Factors such as when, how, who and where the poll was taken can often affect

For example poll taken on September 27 by SurveyUSA asked nine hundred participants in California “If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?” 33 percent of respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump, and 59 percent said they would vote for Hillary Clinton (SurveyUSA).The same poll was taken again on October 13, 30 percent of respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump, and 56 percent said they would vote for Hillary Clinton (SurveyUSA).

The raw data tells us that Clinton still has a large lead but that both Trump and Clinton went down three percent in popularity in just over two weeks. However, the first poll was taken over the phone right after the first presidential debate, which many consider Clinton winning. The timing of the poll might have enhanced favorability for Clinton. The second poll was conducted over the phone right after the second debate. This was also just days after a 10-year-old tape resurfaced of Trump making lewd remarks about women. The timing of this poll may explain why Trump lost of support (inappropriate remarks about women). Also, remember that this poll was conducted in California, a liberal state, so these results are not representative of the entire country’s choice on Election Day.

This poll succeeded in that it surveyed nine hundred California residents, a large sample size, which is large enough that ti could be  representative of how California will vote this year. The poll also succeeded in recording responses over the phone because respondents feel they can be more honest due to the anonymity of voice calls.

by PJ Collins