Looking into the
methodology of a poll can help the audience understand the results, the
presentation of those results and if there is any obvious bias. Factors such as
when, how, who and where the poll was taken can often affect
For example poll
taken on September 27 by SurveyUSA asked nine hundred participants in
California “If the election for President of the United States were today, and
you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?” 33 percent
of respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump, and 59 percent said they
would vote for Hillary Clinton (SurveyUSA).The same poll was taken again on
October 13, 30 percent of respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump,
and 56 percent said they would vote for Hillary Clinton (SurveyUSA).
The raw data tells us that
Clinton still has a large lead but that both Trump and Clinton went down three
percent in popularity in just over two weeks. However, the first poll was taken
over the phone right after the first presidential debate, which many consider
Clinton winning. The timing of the poll might have enhanced favorability for
Clinton. The second poll was conducted over the phone right after the second
debate. This was also just days after a 10-year-old tape resurfaced of Trump
making lewd remarks about women. The timing of this poll may explain why Trump
lost of support (inappropriate remarks about women). Also, remember that this
poll was conducted in California, a liberal state, so these results are not
representative of the entire country’s choice on Election Day.
This poll succeeded in that it surveyed nine hundred California
residents, a large sample size, which is large enough that ti could be representative of how California will vote
this year. The poll also succeeded in recording responses over the phone
because respondents feel they can be more honest due to the
anonymity of voice calls.
by PJ Collins
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