Poll methodology is
important to ensure accuracy. You often hear in the news as a candidate
“leading in the polls”, this is most likely in reference to a public opinion
poll conducted by a reputed organization that is dedicated to conducting such
polls.
Since September, the
Monmouth Polling Institute has kept a close watch on the 2016 Presidential
Race, conducting polls in specific states and nationally.
The Monmouth University
Poll is sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth Polling Institute. Depending
on the particular poll, participants are sometimes registered voters, but at
other times likely voters are the sample. A likely voter is a voter who is most
likely to vote on election day, as opposed to a registered voter who is registered
in their county to vote but may or may not exercise that right on election day.
Monmouth conduct a national random sample, with interviewers calling voter’s
landlines and cellphones.
Polls with this method can
be representative of a certain population because all members of the population
have a possibility of being chosen. Finding a truly a random sample, especially
on a national level, can be laborious and expensive. The Monmouth poll is
upfront about some limitations, saying “In addition to sampling error, one
should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion
polls.” This transparency is laudable in an election season where daily opinion
surveys can become confusing.
by Suraj Minisandram
Yes particularly hard where voting is optional, as the challenge is finding out who is motivated to vote. In Australia it's a bit easier to judge voting intentions as voting is compulsory.
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